February 27, 2026
The Empire Club of Canada Presents
Power Panel: Energy for Generations – Can Ontario Meet the Challenge?
Chairperson: Jenna Donelson, Immediate Past Chair, Board of Directors, Empire Club of Canada
Moderator
Dr. Monica Gattinger, Founding Chair, Positive Energy; Director, Institute for Science, Society and Policy; Full Professor, School of Political Studies, University of Ottawa
Panellists
Lesley Gallinger, President & CEO, Independent Electricity System Operator
Nicolle Butcher, President & CEO of Ontario Power Generation
Michele Harradence, President, Enbridge Gas
Head Table Guests
Lisa Pearson, Executive Vice President, Corporate Affairs, Hydro One
Brendan Costigan, Managing Director, Investment Banking — Power, Utilities & Infrastructure, National Bank Capital Markets
Welcome Address by Jenna Donelson, Immediate Past Chair, Board of Directors, Empire Club of Canada
Good afternoon, everyone. I’m Jenna Donelson, immediate past chair of the board of the Empire Club of Canada, and your host for today’s events.
To formally begin, I want to acknowledge that we are gathering on the Traditional and Treaty Lands of the Mississaugas of the Credit, and the homelands of the Anishinaabe, the Haudenosaunee, and the Wendat Peoples. I encourage you all to learn more about the Traditional Territory on which you work and live.
Today’s event would not be possible without the generous support of our sponsors. The Empire Club is a nonprofit organization. Our sponsors generously support the club, and they make events like these possible and complimentary for those of you that are viewing online. So, please join me in thanking our Lead Sponsors, Hydro One and National Bank Capital Markets. Thank you. Thank you, as well, to our VIP Reception Sponsors for today, McKinsey & Company, Waste Connections of Canada, Aecon, CANDU Energy, and AtkinsRéalis Company, Ernst & Young, and LiUNA. Thank you for supporting us today. And thank you, as well, to our Supporting Sponsors, BWXT, the Nuclear Waste Management Organization, OEC Energy and Infrastructure, and Burns & MacDonald. Thank you. We also deeply appreciate the ongoing support of our Lead Season Sponsors, Bruce Power, Hydro One, and National Bank Capital Markets, and our VIP Reception Season Sponsors, Ellis Don, McKinsey, the Ontario Road Builders Association ,and Waste Connections of Canada. Thank you, for your ongoing support all season long. And finally, thank you to our Media Partner, the Toronto Star, and our AV Partner, Bespoke Audio Visual. Thank you.
If you have a question for our speakers, please scan the QR code that you will find on your program or through the Q&A function, if you’re online. For those of you that are online, if you require technical assistance, please use the chat feature and our staff will be there to help you.
It seems that every time we bring together a conversation on this stage about energy in Ontario these days, it is exceptionally timely, and today is no different. Volatility has become our new normal, and energy is now a centrepiece of not only our geopolitics, but also our sovereignty, and it’s one of the bright spots in our economic future. This is certainly not the first time our province and our country have understood energy as deeply intertwined with our identity.
The Empire Club stage has hosted conversations about energy in Canada for as long as we’ve been in existence, for more than 120 years. And in 1983, then Federal Minister of Energy Jean Chrétien delivered an important reminder on this stage that energy is core to our nationhood, and that Canadians must play a growing role in their energy industries. His speech was prescient at the time, and in it he detailed how in a very real sense, the world as we knew it changed abruptly between 1973 and 1974. And in true fashion, he took the opportunity to remind us of our strengths, and of our backbone as Canadians. When recalling competing provincial demands and compounding challenges in Canada’s energy market, Jean Chrétien said, “It is an illustration of how volatile the world scene is today, that we are constantly faced with new challenges. We should not be afraid to take them on. In the past few years, we have faced some fantastic challenges. And now, we have faced some fantastic challenges that now we have forgotten about. This is very much the Canadian way, and yes, we as Canadians can do even better, but in order to do that, we have to develop a sense of participation, a sense of contribution. Every citizen in this country has to realize that we are all patriots, and we will all make our own contributions. Canada, ladies and gentlemen, is still the best.” I thought it sounded all too familiar, and too applicable to today.
Making meaningful contributions to Ontario’s success and Canada’s success is no small undertaking in this moment. Taking a focused and strategic approach to energy is a critical step for Ontario, because amidst trade disruption and accelerating global competition, we must be savvy and smart, as we plan our path forward. And not only that, we need to meet the growing needs that come with electrification of industry, transportation, data centres, and population growth. All of this demands meaningful discussion on infrastructure, investment, timelines, and coordination. And that’s why we’re all lucky to be here today, gaining insights from important industry leaders, our Power Panel.
So, before we get to that, and move into special remarks and the fireside chat, we will hear from one of our Lead Sponsors, Hydro One, who is a central partner in building and maintaining the transmission backbone that connects communities, industry and opportunity across our province. It’s my pleasure to invite Lisa Pearson, EVP of Corporate Affairs at Hydro One, to offer opening remarks and introduce our special guest, Lesley Gallagher. Will you all join me in welcoming Lisa to the stage?
Opening Remarks by Lisa Pearson, Executive Vice President, Corporate Affairs, Hydro One
Good afternoon, everybody. It is my real privilege to be here today to talk about powering Ontario’s future. It’s hard to believe that I’ve spent more than the last two decades working in or around the energy sector. And when I began my career, the industry looked a bit different than it does today. Back then, there were very few women in the room, very few women at decision-making tables and even fewer women being asked to lead the conversation about the future of energy. Fast forward to today, and what a difference a generation can make. As we look ahead to International Women’s Day next month, it feels especially fitting to introduce a panel made up entirely of women, who are not just part of the energy sector, but who are shaping it. These leaders are driving innovation, guiding policy, strengthening our system, and helping Ontario navigate one of the most important transitions of our time.
That’s why Hydro One is proud to sponsor today’s conversation. Ontario’s long-term demand for energy is increasing, as is the investment required to strengthen the electricity system. Hydro One’s job is to deliver the transmission and distribution infrastructure that Ontario needs. We are an Ontario-based company with more than 95 employees across the province, and we invest here at home. Last year, more than 93% of our spending was with Canadian companies, with most of that right here at home in Ontario.
Today’s conversation couldn’t be more timely or relevant, and we are fortunate to have Lesley Gallenger with us today to provide remarks. Lesley is well-known to most of us in this room, but just in case you don’t know her, she is currently the President and CEO of the Independent Electricity System Operator, the organisation responsible for keeping Ontario’s power system reliable, affordable and ready for the future. Lesley is a widely respected leader with deep experience, guiding complex organisations through major change. Please join me, in welcoming my friend, Lesley.
Lesley Gallinger, President & CEO, Independent Electricity System Operator
Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you, Lisa, for that introduction, and a very kind of you to say. I’ll call you a friend, as well. And thank you to the Empire Club for inviting me here today to set the stage for this discussion. It’s a true pleasure to be here.
Today’s theme speaks to the core challenges of the moment, and the opportunities of the future. More than ever, energy policy is inextricably linked to economic policy. And in our fractured geopolitical landscape, energy and the economy are also now connected to matters of sovereignty and to matters of security. Canada’s energy sector is at an inflection point. The actions we take today will set the trajectory for competitiveness, growth and security for generations to come.
Here in Ontario, the Integrated Energy Plan is our blueprint for building a more prosperous and resilient energy future. Its success hinges on an effort of extraordinary scope and scale, a shared responsibility with many partners in our sector, including OPG and Enbridge, and in collective accountability. At the IESO, we are taking bold steps to build a modern electricity system to power thriving communities and businesses, and connect new customers efficiently across the province, fostering a favourable investment climate that will mobilize capital, fuel growth, and create high-value jobs. We have opportunity in front of us and momentum behind us.
Ontario has a strong and diverse supply mix, and our grid is reliable, affordable and sustainable. We’re strengthening that asset by making smart investments and bolstered new infrastructure. We’ve secured about 4,000 megawatts of new capacity in the last two years alone. By 2028, we will have added 30 new generators and energy storage facilities to the grid. And we’ve also recommitted 3,000 megawatts of existing supply at a lower price. And to ensure that electricity can flow, there are more than 1,800 kilometres of new transmission in planning or under development today.
And that’s only a snapshot. We continue to run competitive procurements for new resources, including the single largest in Ontario’s history, and expand energy efficiency offerings that will save billions in system costs. And we’re already seeing the benefits of that approach. During January’s major winter storm, with bitter cold and heavy snow across much of Ontario, our grid delivered reliable power when customers needed it most. Even in extreme conditions, we were able to support neighbouring grids by exporting thousands of megawatts of electricity to help meet their needs.
And while many jurisdictions struggle with reliability, the authority that evaluates power systems across North America recently rated Ontario’s resource adequacy as normal risk for the decade ahead. And that may sound modest—normal risk sounds modest, for sure—but the context is key here. Every one of our neighbouring systems, both Canadian and American, were graded as either elevated or high risk. On the reliability front, Ontario is an island of stability in a sea of uncertainty.
So, let me slightly reframe the question before us today. Can we, as an electricity system operator, as a broader energy sector, and as a province, deliver on the ambition of the integrated energy plan to build a stronger and more competitive Ontario? I believe we are, and I believe we must. Our economic and social wellbeing depend on it. We also need to be clear-eyed about the challenges and trade-offs that we’ll face, both today and further down the line. Global volatility continues to strain key industries here at home. That pressure is weighing on businesses and investors and disrupting some complex supply chains. And frankly, we can’t be sure when the shifting ground underneath our feet may settle. So, we’re grounding ourselves in what we do know. How electricity is being used and what it powers continues to rapidly evolve. Daily life, business, and heavy industry are electrifying at a remarkable pace. Our population is increasing, and critical sectors like mining and agriculture are poised for growth. Adoption of AI is accelerating, and with it the intensive energy demands of data centres.
The IESO’s latest forecast projects the demand for electricity in Ontario will increase 65 per cent by 2050. And so, we’re focused on future-proofing our grid by taking a long-term view, even as we manage the near-term uncertainty and cost pressures. Because as demand climbs, the grid has to catalyze, not constrain new growth. And that’s why our mandate has expanded to support economic growth, rather than simply to follow it.
Added to our conventional role as system operator and planner is a broader challenge. We call it the energy quadrilemma: balancing reliability, affordability, sustainability, and now, economic growth. Finding the optimal balance between these objectives will not be a linear path. It’s a dynamic process, shaped by an evolving ecosystem of considerations and potential constraints, where progress in one area can put pressure on another area, and there will be trade-offs, and the balance will shift, as needs and priorities develop. But our agile planning processes are designed to creatively respond to those changing conditions, along with clear policy direction, cross-sector collaboration, and purposeful engagement with all of those who rely on the grid, we can fine-tune our approach. And if points of friction emerge, we’re ready to embrace new solutions and recalibrate, so that Ontario can be even more competitive, a more competitive place to run and grow a business.
Standing here today, and looking out to 2050, I can say with confidence that Ontario’s energy future is bright. With purpose, conviction and collective action, we can turn that promise into lasting prosperity. The pressure is real, the expectations are high and the road ahead will no doubt test us. As the past 15 months have shown, we can’t always see what lies behind every curve. But they’ve also made clear that we cannot wait to begin building for that future. We must seize this moment and move forward to power today’s needs and tomorrow’s opportunities. Thank you, and I look forward to a compelling panel discussion.
Jenna Donelson
Let’s thank Lesley one more time. Lesley, that was fantastic. Thank you so much. I think you’re giving a lot of people in this room confidence about the future resilience and opportunity for Ontario. And your leadership at the IESO continues to shape how our province plans, procures and prepares for the growth ahead.
Now, joining Lesley on this panel, we have first Nicolle Butcher, President and CEO of Ontario Power Generation. She is leading the Darlington and Pickering refurbishments, and advancing Ontario’s next generation of nuclear and hydroelectric supply. Will you join me, in welcoming Nicolle to the stage? We are also joined by Michele Harradence, President of Enbridge Gas, who oversees North America’s largest gas utility and brings deep expertise across the energy value chain. Will you join me, please, in welcoming Michele? And finally, moderating today’s conversation is Monica Gattinger, founding chair of Positive Energy, Director of the Institute for Science, Society and Policy, and full professor at the School of Political Studies at the University of Ottawa. Her work bridges research, policy, and sector leadership in Canada’s energy transition. Will you join me in welcoming Monica?
This is your power panel, and as Monica gets on the stage, I will hand it over to her. Please, one last round of applause for the panel.
Dr. Monica Gattinger, Founding Chair, Positive Energy; Director, Institute for Science, Society and Policy; Full Professor, School of Political Studies, University of Ottawa
Well, all right. This is great. I cannot tell you how privileged I am to be here today. Lesley, I want to begin just by thanking you for your insightful and inspiring remarks. I think they ground our discussion in three things, the province’s ambitious integrated energy plan, the energy quadrilemma, and the often unpredictable and volatile times that we’re all in. And I think you’ve made clear that the future is bright for Ontario’s energy sector, and for all of us as citizens, as customers, as community members, and also for the industry sectors in this room that will power Ontario’s economic success in the decades ahead.
So, I have the honour of moderating this discussion with Lesley and two of Ontario’s foremost energy leaders, one from the electricity sector, one from natural gas. So, what we’re going to do is dig into some of the themes that Lesley has raised, we’ll bring forward the opportunities, the challenges, and some of the critical success factors for Ontario to fully capitalize on its energy and economic potential. It’s a very exciting time.
So, I want to begin with the economic part of the energy quadrilemma that Lesley raised. Those in the energy sector, and also in industry, they know that energy is a critical input to economic growth, to innovation, to competitiveness, to trade. That means having the right energy available at the right time, at the right place, at the right price. It also means the energy sector in and of itself is a source of economic growth, and the province is elevating that economic imperative in ways that we haven’t seen in years. So, I’d really like to begin by hearing from all three of you on this. How well is the energy sector positioned to deliver on its energy potential, whether it’s to spur economic growth and innovation in the coming decades, but also as an input to other sectors, and as a sector in and of itself? So maybe, Nicolle, we can start with you.
Nicolle Butcher, President & CEO of Ontario Power Generation
Sure. It’s an interesting question, and I think fundamentally, energy is critical for all of Canada’s growth. If I were project managing Build Canada right now, energy would be a prerequisite to anything else you’re going to do, and so I think that’s how we have to start to think about it, and I think we’re well positioned. You look at the federal government’s announcing defense manufacturing, data sovereignty with all AI data centres, all of that requires energy. So, we have to be there first. And when I look at our projects, we drive economic development unto ourselves, as you’ve outlined. We have tens of thousands of people employed, building our refurbishment projects, both Darlington and Pickering, and our SMR projects, and then working with many people in the supply chain on our future projects, and so, it is an economic driver.
I think it was at the Empire Club last year that I said that the single biggest economic driver that we had right then on the day that Trump announced the tariffs was to kick off that SMR project, and we are well underway with that. So, I think we’ve come a long way, even in the last few months, and I think one thing I think we should be really proud of is the momentum. We are not starting from scratch. We have spent significant dollars building up supply chain, doing our refurbishments, both us and Bruce Power, and so we have momentum. We’re not at the starting gate, we have significant momentum. And I think we should be pretty darn proud that we hit normal risk. Like, that’s not something I think you should normally celebrate, but we should be proud of where we are. Because it took everyone in this room to get us to being ahead of this, and truly being a leader in driving this electricity development.
Dr. Monica Gattinger
Yeah. I love that point about momentum, right? Because it’s sort of how do you turn a moment of opportunity into momentum for the years ahead? Michele, what about for you, what’s your perspective on that?
Michele Harradence, President, Enbridge Gas
Well, I think in the last year or two, what we’ve seen is a much more pragmatic approach towards energy, and more of a recognition that it needs to come from multiple sources. I think just a few months ago, my boss was here talking about all of the above, and now it’s really turning into more of the above, that need for that energy to drive our sovereignty—I love that statement, but our independence, our economic growth, and our prosperity. But it’s got to be balanced, as Lesley talked about, and she talked about the energy quadrilemma. We can’t pick one thing, we can’t pick something that’s, for example, ideological, but we can’t go hard to another direction, either. We know that.
So, when we look at the position we’re sitting in now, I would say I feel a lot better than I did, especially provincially, here in Ontario, I think we’ve really made some good decisions. I do worry that it has to be connected from a federal level, as well, and we’ve had a lot of discussion at the federal level, but we need to see some action. You know, in my current role, I spend a lot of time in Washington, DC, and they are moving like you wouldn’t believe. We, as a corporation, are scrambling to keep up with them, and that’s not how we feel when we’re on the north side of the border. So, we need to do some things there. But that fundamental recognition that it drives growth, I mean, one of the projects we’re particularly proud of here in Ontario is, we call it PREP, but our Panhandle Reinforcement Project, it’s a pipeline reinforcement project in Southwestern Ontario. We have $350 million in spend by us, so pretty modest spend, certainly compared to what Nicolle gets to spend these days. But what the Ontario Energy Board found when they approved it, it would drive over $4 billion in opportunities in Southwestern Ontario, 7,000 jobs, that enabler of that reliable, accessible energy is really key.
Dr. Monica Gattinger
Yeah, I mean, the tone has really changed, right?
Michele Harradence
Oh, fundamentally.
Dr. Monica Gattinger
The way we’re thinking about these things. We’re going to come back to your point about, you know, are we moving fast enough, though, so stay tuned. Lesley, what about from your perspective?
Lesley Gallinger
Yeah, thanks very much. And I want to acknowledge and thank Nicolle for acknowledging that adequate is good, when it comes to electricity cost and reliability. And look, we couldn’t do that without the partners on the stage here, and others in the room. And I think what that, you know, that tells me, that stability is really important for the province, for economic growth, for development, and for future, and for that momentum, so really proud of that work, and proud of the effort that it took to get there.
The other thing I’d point to is the level of engagement in sectors and parts of the sector, parts of the province that we wouldn’t normally have conversations with, whether it’s municipalities or organizations that wouldn’t really be interested in the energy system. Definitely, a high level of conversation, and interest from Indigenous communities, very important, and I think all of that is pointing, again, towards that economic prosperity, and from our perspective, confidence is critically important. So, making sure that our processes, people have confidence in our process, outcomes, they can see the timelines clearly, that our forecasts are iterative, and pointing in the right direction. So, all the evolution we’ve done in our process is, again, about building that confidence. And so, confidence, stability, and momentum, I think all three of those lead into the province’s future brightness.
Dr. Monica Gattinger
Yeah, that’s such an important point that you made in terms of, like, who’s at the table as well, right? And that people have confidence in those decision-making processes. And so, I mean, in some respects, the economic opportunities related to energy are kind of obvious, I guess you could say, or straightforward. Ontario has undeniable potential, the province can indeed be an energy superpower, contributing to economic super growth, if we can put it that way. What I want to do now is dig into some of the challenges or barriers that need to be overcome to realize that potential, maybe Michele, we’ll start with you here first. A challenge we often hear about—and it’s one that you, I think, kind of alluded to—is the investment environment, right? So, both the federal and provincial governments here in Canada are taking steps to speed up and facilitate regulatory approvals for major projects, kind of improving on that investment environment, how are we doing making Ontario a leading place to deploy capital?
Michele Harradence
Well, I think we’ve taken some great steps in the last year or so, I mean, certainly, unless we talked about the Integrated Energy Plan, and that was a great document to make it very clear what Ontario’s policies are, what our aspirations are, the need to balance things. And that’s just such a huge enabler, that sort of clarity. But I think, at the end of the day, what we need to bear in mind is this is happening around the world, this is a global issue, people recognize that need, and that access to energy is going to be an economic driver for everyone. And folks are increasingly realizing it’s part of sovereignty, as we talked about, as well. So, I think that is the area we need to stay focused on, is, at the end of the day, the capital will flow where there’s the most certainty of the return on and return of that capital.
So, I mentioned the utilities we have in the US, we acquired those a couple of years ago, spent about $19 billion acquiring those utilities, and they’re in jurisdictions where there’s a strong degree of alignment, between the policy and the actions that happen, whether it’s at the regulatory level, or what have you, our ability to permit things and to get it built. And that’s important, because at the end of the day, certainly one of the things we take incredibly seriously at Enbridge, is the fact that we sit in the pension plans of most Canadians—increasingly, many Americans, as well. They’re our shareholders, we have a duty to protect their money. So, when we go and invest a significant amount of money, and then have the, have things suddenly switch, that’s not a great environment to be in, and that’s not us doing our jobs. So, I think we’ve had a lot of good discussion, I would say, but making sure we enable that certainty of investment, that certainty of the return on and of your capital, and really, you know, I think there’s lots of discussion about timelines, but doing it in a timely manner is also critical. So, a little more work to do, I’d say, in that regard.
Dr. Monica Gattinger
Nicolle, I see you nodding your head at that. Thoughts to add?
Nicolle Butcher
Yeah, maybe I’ll talk a bit about the regulatory, and then the capital piece. From a regulatory perspective, I think both the provincial and federal governments recognize this challenge, and have taken steps, you know, the province has put in special economic zones to identify those areas where the proponents may need help getting things done faster, and, you know, the federal government has the MPO. I think we need to exercise those, and get some projects through, and get that muscle built on being able to do things fast.
We had good fortune, I would say, with our SMR project, that we had already gone through the bulk of the licensing process, so didn’t have to start from scratch and spend that time. We still have to get permits, and we still struggle through getting those permits, and so we need to get better at that, faster at that. I think we have the right tools from both the federal and provincial government, we just got to exercise them very quickly, and make sure we’re taking all of the lessons from, you know, whether it’s a mine in northern Ontario, how can we learn from that to actually get better at licensing in Wesleyville. And so, I think we have the right tools there.
From a capital deployment perspective, again, we need some unique tools to make this happen faster, and I would look to our SMR project where, you know, I think there’s an interest in investment in energy. I think they struggle with the construction risk around both nuclear and, I would say, Greenfield Hydro. We have no problem attracting capital to our corporate bond program. We’ve done $5.5 billion under our sustainable bond framework, and it’s been very successful, but those are existing operating assets, and so the risk profile is very different than an SMR or a new Greenfield Hydro plant in the North. And so, I think that both provincial and federal governments have recognized we need to help fill that gap until we can actually get those to private equity.
So, you know, we play a role. There’s absolutely no doubt OPG has a role to prove to the financial community we can build on time and on budget. And, you know, we announced our Darlington refurbishment, came in ahead of schedule and under budget, and that’s step one in helping the financial community get comfort. But in the meantime, we did have the opportunity to have an equity investment from both Building Ontario Fund and Canada Growth Fund into our SMR program, and that helps us fill a gap where they will be equity partners with us through the construction period, take on that risk. And then when it’s an operating plant, and things are normal, and the risk profile has come down, they’ll sell their shares, and we’ll have private equity. And so, that’s an example of where we have a gap that the governments have come and helped us fill to actually be able to get going, get going faster, and build this momentum.
Dr. Monica Gattinger
But what I’m hearing is progress, but we need to do more faster alignment, innovation, fill those gaps.
Nicolle Butcher
Yeah. Good tools; we got to use them faster.
Dr. Monica Gattinger
Okay. Great, great. Another challenge when it comes to realizing Ontario’s energy potential is really inherent in that energy quadrilemma itself. I mean, I think you alluded to that before, Michele, like it’s easy to have any one part of that quadrilemma. Having all parts of that quadrilemma is really tough, so balancing those energy imperatives, pursuing economic growth, while at the same time ensuring energy is reliable, affordable, sustainable. So, I’d like to hear from each of you on this. What are some of the key issues, Lesley, for the electricity sector, when it comes to balancing the imperatives?
Lesley Gallinger
Yeah, it really is, as I said in my opening comments, one of those equations where, like a balloon, if you squeeze on one side, the other side gets bigger. It’s really dynamic, and things are going to be in motion all the time. And so, we sort of have to continue to be alive to that, and be able to continue to evolve, as we look to navigate the trade-offs that are necessarily going to be required as we emphasize one corner of the quadrilemma, or another corner of the quadrilemma.
And I think the things that we need to keep in mind are that technology will evolve as we go, as well. So, we need to not static ourselves on a solution set that exists today, but continue to pulse forward, and think about what might be coming in the future in terms of technology from the grid, but also, technology right down to consumers’ households, and how they think about their energy use and their contribution as we look forward. You know, I think SMRs are a fine example of new technology that we weren’t talking about just a number of years ago, and so there we go. Off we march on that direction. We’ve got a hydrogen pilot program, blending program with Enbridge that’s running, again, new technology. How is that going to help and evolve what the quadrilemma looks like, as we go forward? So, I think all of those things we need to keep in mind. We do have to recognize we don’t have a lot of room for error. We kind of have to get this right first time out, which means it’s got to be iterative and it’s got to be fast, to the conversation that we’ve had at the table today. And we also do have to keep, you know, all four things in full view, as we navigate.
Dr. Monica Gattinger
Yeah. Nicolle, thoughts on that, anything you’d like to add?
Nicolle Butcher
Yeah, I think, you know, we obviously play a role in all four…
Dr. Monica Gattinger
Yeah.
Nicolle Butcher
…of those with our portfolio. And the way we really think about it is first on the project side, in the capital we’re spending. And, you know, there’s rigorous analysis that goes into, were the SMRs the best thing for the grid at the time? And that’s based on a capital cost estimate and a schedule, and our job is to make sure we’re executing in that cost and schedule. And that’s how we make sure we play the right role.
On our operations side, I think we play a significant role in both reliability and affordability. So, making sure that we are there during the polar vortex, when everyone in this room needs us to be there, as well as making sure that we’re looking and driving efficiency. So, how can we constantly be thinking about how do we do it better, cheaper, where are we going to use AI, how does that actually drive both costs down, but also reliability up? And so, those are, you know, on the operations side, there’s a significant focus on the role that we play in the market.
Dr. Monica Gattinger
Michele, I’m curious to hear from you on this through kind of the lens of natural gas. What’s your sense about balancing those imperatives?
Michele Harradence
Well, I think I said this earlier, but I feel like we’ve come back to a more pragmatic place. And I think part of what’s happening is we’re looking at things through the lens of the consumer. And, you know, if I look at Enbridge Gas here in Ontario, 75% of Ontario’s homes, so some 15 million people, receive their heat from natural gas. And I think we had moved away from really listening to what the people wanted, and more towards some ideology, and we’re bringing that back. Because at the end of the day, on January 23rd and 24th, it wasn’t ideology that was keeping your home warm. The natural gas system was producing something like 38% of the electricity in Ontario, the nuclear system was producing a similar amount. I mean, that’s close to 80% of our energy was coming from those two areas. And I think I’d be remiss if I didn’t also point out that six times that—so, another, what would that be, 55 or 60 gigawatts equivalent of energy was going directly into people’s homes. That’s what matters and to us in our business, that’s something we take incredibly seriously.
So, several years ago when I when I first came here, there was a lot of discussion about how are we going to go off gas we need to go off gas. And as an engineer who takes my duty very seriously—I mean, I’m a Canadian engineer; that means I wear an Iron Ring, that means that I had that ceremony—and keeping the public safe is a fundamental thing we do. I looked at that and thought, this is scary, how are we going to do that? How can we do this in a responsible way? You know, as an engineer—let’s be clear, love our nuclear program, I think it’s exactly what we should be doing, as well, but it’s got to be balanced. So, I think that’s happening.
But I can tell you, I was sitting on an Air Canada. I was coming back from Newfoundland, and the jetway had frozen, and we couldn’t get on the plane. But once we got off of that and we were flying back—and by the way, they were announcing rolling blackouts when I left Newfoundland that night, the night of the 23rd. I was looking at Gridwatch, and looking at just how much energy we were, and electricity we’re producing while I was on the plane, and thinking, how can we be even smarter, how can we be even more coordinated about this? I think the IESO does a great job of bringing us together. But, and those are some barriers that I’ve really seen break down over the last couple of years. We need to do more of that. We need to really understand, you know—as I was looking at this, I thought, I hope everybody’s okay. Well, it shouldn’t be hope. Hope’s not a strategy. It should be, I know that, you know, there’s no issues—in fact, nuclear was running, I think, eight, eight megawatts over its ceilinged capacity. Fantastic. Do we know we can keep that going, do we know the gas system is going to go, do we know everything we’re relying on is going to happen. So, I don’t think we can do enough sharing around that and coordinating around that.
Dr. Monica Gattinger
Well, you’ve given me a great segue into our next question, which is actually exactly on that topic of, of planning. You know, I mean it’s almost become trite to say that the environment for planning has become volatile, and unpredictable, and uncertain, but of course, it is. It’s also become commonplace to say—and Lesley, you mentioned it in your remarks; Michele you’ve just mentioned it, you know, different parts of the energy sector need to work together, far more closely and here in Ontario we have made I agree with you. There’s been absolutely tremendous progress that’s been made on that front working together across different parts of the sector, the spirit of collaboration is there, there’s a recognition of the need to work together much more closely—I mean look at this panel I think is an excellent illustration of that. So Michele, I’m actually going to come back to you, and kind of ask you to dig in a little bit more around what are some of the different parts of the energy sector that need to come together to work together on coordinating resource planning, and what more needs to be done. And then Lesley, heads up, I’m going to come to you.
Michele Harradence
Yeah, I mean, we’ve talked mainly about Ontario; I do think at a federal level there’s a requirement to continue to do what we say we’re going to do and, and put the systems in place. We know what we need, we know what’s coming, we know how to build it, we know that demand is coming. And it’s interesting, about a year ago, I was at a dinner. It was down in New York, but it was several folks who are in Lesley’s role in the US, whether PJM, or [Indiscernible], several of these CEOs, and decided that they’re all as pragmatic as Lesley, as they were definitely of a type which is, I need all of it. And there was this discussion because data centres were still early on, and they were, there was some discussion about, oh, the chips are going to get efficient, and we won’t need all this electricity, and then, we’ll have a stranded asset risk—I see you rolling your eyes, Lesley. The point of the matter was, every one of them said, let that be my problem that I have too much electricity, and too much energy right now. Because it’s not my problem. It’s not what I’m looking at right now. I have a friend who is a COO for a combined and electricity and gas utility in the US Northeast, and what she has had to say to, to her key stakeholders, to the governor of her state is, you do not want me to get as good at load shedding, as I am a storm response. We’re nowhere near that in in Ontario. We’re normal, right? That’s a very good place to be.
But again, I go back to I don’t think we can do enough of making sure we understand what we’re planning for ahead of time, and let’s not let perfect get in the way of good. If we have a little too much, that’s okay. That’s that allows us to drive our economy, and that’s what we’re here to talk about is how important it is for that.
Dr. Monica Gattinger
Yeah, Lesley the IESO has a lot of responsibility for planning, especially now, under the IEP. Thoughts to share?
Lesley Gallinger
Thanks, and I would also like to touch down again on Michele’s comment on coordination. I mean, I think we’ve, we’ve gotten a lot better at intaking a lot more information, and working together in a very pragmatic and transparent way over the, you know, past number of years, and that’s critical to day-to-day, moment-to-moment reliability. But it’s also critical to that long term planning. And I think we recognize, as well, that hearing from more voices in the planning conversation can only make the plan more robust, and more accurate, and more, more timely. And so, to that end, we’ve, we’ve done some real life examples. For example, you know, having not only the utilities, but, but Enbridge at the table, and regional planning to have a really solid understanding about how we’re seeing each other’s systems, and how we’re seeing the contribution, both in the electricity, and home heating, and evolutionary technology way of making sure that our forecasts are accurate, so that we can then recommend things that are that are, you know, timely, sustainable, and cost-effective for customers.
Lesley Gallinger
One of the next things that the IEP is pointing us to do which is, which is being stood up just later this month, or next month, is the concept of MPICs Major Project Identification Committees. And so, that will bring even a larger sort of regional voice and regional structure to those conversations, to give us an early bird’s eye view on what regions aspirations are, what they’re seeing coming, in terms of economic development opportunities that are that are coming to their city halls or town halls, as well as having the major sector players at the table. So, I think that’s going to be really, really helpful again, another layer down, another layer of transparency, and, and communication, and coordination that, that again can help us stay where we are in fact get a little better get a little longer view of what’s coming.
Dr. Monica Gattinger
Yeah, no. And I mean, it’s not sort of the sexy stuff, if I can say it that way of, of the energy space, but it’s so fundamental. If we can get this piece right, that’s going to be absolutely fundamental to unlocking Ontario’s energy potential and economic potential. I want to turn to labour, now. And so, you know, another dimension of planning of course relates to labour. And in the lead up to International Women’s Day, I’d be remiss if I didn’t acknowledge the incredible, incredible women on this stage, and more broadly, in Ontario’s energy sector. I mean, it’s phenomenal. Women have made incredible strides in the sector in Ontario. It’s, in fact, it’s something I often point to when I’m working in other jurisdictions. But of course, there’s always more that can be done. And in the current context of rapid growth in the sector it’s part of a broader need to ensure that the sector has a people that needs—including women, but not exclusively—to achieve our shared goals. So, maybe a question—we’ll come back to you, Michele, on, on this one. If you can speak a little bit to labour force planning, what it, what is Enbridge, on the broader energy sector, what are they doing to ensure we’ve got the workers that are going to be needed? Because it’s great to have all this talk, but if we don’t have the people there to make it happen, we’re in big trouble. So, Michele?
Michele Harradence
Well, I think that’s right. And you know as, as Enbridge, one thing that’s incredibly important to us is that our workforce reflect the communities in which we operate. And what we’ve found is that if we have a diverse workforce—and I don’t think anybody debates these statistics, it’s not just us who’ve found that—you get better ideas, you get more creativity, you get more perspectives that are coming in. So, whether that is through our Indigenous programs, we had, I think it was eight summer students last year that had come in across the province, three of which are now full time employees. So, it’s, we’re very excited about that. And I realize it may seem like small numbers, when we have 3500 employees. But making sure that everyone has a voice at the table. So, that’s, that’s, that’s a big part of it. But I think it’s also about making sure we have the sort of dynamics on our leadership teams, and everywhere else through the organization, that can be looking and thinking of how things are going to change.
We’re 178 years old, right? We started with 12 street lamps, as I like to say, here in downtown Toronto, 178. And that isn’t necessarily synonymous with innovation, except 178 years later, we’re still here, we’re still continuing to transform to meet what the, what the energy system needs, and that’s through our people and the ideas that they, they have. So, like many, we’re looking at efficiencies, we’re looking at things like AI, to make sure that we think of it as freeing our people up to do that critical thinking, to be looking forward, to be looking around corners.
But also, the other key, key part of it is the trades. I mean, AI is not going to install a meter, it’s not going to lay pipe, it’s simply not going to do that. And we need those trades. And I think I’m seeing that discussion come out a little bit. But it is troubling how far we’ve gone away from really promoting the trades for students. And I’ve worked in, in industry and construction projects my whole career, so I’m a big, big fan of the trades. But that’s something that we need to continue to really lean into, and press on.
Nicolle Butcher
Yeah. For sure.
Lesley Gallinger
Absolutely.
Dr. Monica Gattinger
Yeah, I see a lot of nodding heads that would include mine, as well. So, my final question is for Nicolle—and so, for those in the room who have questions, please throw them our way. I’ve got an iPad here, and we’ll have time maybe for one or two questions. So, my final question is for you, Nicolle. It’s about supply chains? And you alluded to this earlier, but love to hear a little bit more from you on this. You know, as the world came through COVID, we saw the extent to which supply chains were disrupted, and the challenges that that brought about, I think it was a big wake up call for a lot of us. Now, with growing trade protectionism, you know there’s even more complexity to the supply chain challenge, that extends to questions of national sovereignty, as we mentioned earlier, to resilience. And to this complexity, of course, we can add Ontario’s ambitions to build at a speed and scale that’s unprecedented. So, what needs to be done to ensure Ontario has resilient and dependable supply chains for its big build?
Nicolle Butcher
I mean, I think we’ve done a very good job at this, thus far. I think we’ve built, we have a unique nuclear supply chain in Ontario that is the envy of the world. There is no doubt about that. We have people from all over the world that come to see the SMR site, try to understand how they can learn from us, how they can take it back to their country. And they look at the supply chain, and say how do, how do we leverage, and get in with your supply chain, because they really are phenomenal. And I think about when, how do you grow that? Our view is, we’re looking at it in a very different way than we did, probably 10 years ago. Where 10 years ago, if we needed to buy something, we’d go out and buy it. Or, you know, we do quite regularly refurbishments of our hundreds of hydro units. When we had to do a refurbishment, we’d go out with one unit, procure the parts, find somebody to do it, contract it, get it done, and then move to the next one. And now, we’ve stepped back in a much more strategic way, and are looking for partners. So, we are building partners.
On our hydro side, for instance, we’ve entered into a long term agreement with GE to refurbish our hydro units at Sir Adam Beck. And that gives them certainty. So, it is a 15 year program. They can now go out to the manufacturers and say I’ve got 15 years worth of work, can you expand your capacity. So really, we have to be thinking really long term. And, and when we look at our SMR program, for instance, we use a lot of the supply chain that we built through refurbishment, we’re using on the SMR, because we have the relationships, we have the confidence, they know how to build nuclear quality parts, and we’re bringing different parts of the supply chain into our SMR program, in preparation for large new builds, so that when we get to large new build, we have, we’ve already scaled the supply chain. So, it’s not like, okay, we made a investment decision, we’re going to go build large nuclear, and now let’s figure out how you build supply chain. We’ve already done it. And that’s part of that momentum.
Dr. Monica Gattinger
Yeah.
Nicolle Butcher
And really, we are in a unique position to be able to really build on that.
Dr. Monica Gattinger
Right.
Nicolle Butcher
So, I think the supply chain in Ontario is in a great spot right now and is only going to get better, and more world class. And I think we are going to have many countries coming and saying, can you manufacture the parts here in Ontario for our reactors in Poland, or wherever they may be, because of that expertise.
QUESTIONS & ANSWERS
Dr. Monica Gattinger
All right. Great. All right, so I’m looking at the clock. We don’t have a ton of time, but maybe enough for just one question—and Lesley, it’s coming to you.
Lesley Gallinger
Oh boy.
Dr. Monica Gattinger
But if others want to weigh in, they can. So, the question is from anonymous. Given accelerating electrification and data centre growth, what evidence demonstrates that the IESO’s current planning models are sufficiently granular at the regional level. And I think there’s opportunity for the others to weigh in, if they want to. Because it’s really about regional planning.
Lesley Gallinger
Yeah. Yeah, no. That’s, that’s a really, really good question. Because it is something that we’ve spent a fair bit of time on, over the last couple of years. And folks who’ve been involved in our planning processes know that we do plan in public. We have very, very open and public conversations and meetings to surface all of the, all of the elements that are coming in any given region. I mean we, we look from, you know, macro sources of data right down to conversations with local utilities, with the regional governments, with the gas distribution system, to make sure we understand the landscape, and then look forward, to see that our decisions are future-proofing the system, as we make these recommendations. So, you know, I think that was where we were, so pretty good.
I think we’re continuing now to add to that, in a couple of ways, to continue to make that planning now iterative. It used to be sort of you plan a region, you put it, you put it into action you come back five years later, you plan that region again. So, now we’re into iterative continuous planning, and that’s a new model for us. And, and so that will give us the granular layer. Then I mentioned the MPICs, the Major Project Identification Committees, which are now going to kick off, and are fundamental to getting us even more valuable data, to make sure those, those plans are, are relevant, and, and are on point. But I think more than ever it’s just, it’s just really being on high alert for what’s changing. We’re not in a set it and forget it world anymore. So, we have to be, we have to be in that iterative mindset.
Dr. Monica Gattinger
Okay, we’ve bumped up to the end of time, but any quick follow ups, hot pursuits, Nicolle or Michele?
Nicolle Butcher
The only thing I would add to that is, you know, the, the one thing—one of the things that is most important to us out of the IEP, and how we’re thinking about planning differently is recognizing that there, there are projects that are very long lead. And that it really is a pretty cheap option to go through, and get an environmental assessment done on Wesleyville site. And that gives flexibility. And so, we didn’t use to think that way, right? It was very much what do I need in the next 180 days or two, maybe five years. But in enabling options that might not come in until 2040 was never, never happened. And I think that’s a key piece, certainly for us both on hydro and nuclear, to be able to get those long term projects underway.
Lesley Gallinger
I would agree. We think that’s cheap insurance.
Michele Harradence
And what I would add is I think it’s a mindset shift, to think about optionality. And the other mindset shift that I’ve certainly seen is transparency. There’s very different discussions, and we mentioned that earlier. I mean, Lesley and I have had those conversations to—and folks are here in the room, that are actually doing that, that are behaving that way, that are saying well how are you, what assumptions are you relying on, what assumptions are we relying on. So, if we want to talk about granularity, they are getting granular. Whereas it used to be plan in a silo, plan in a silo, protect your information. Why we thought that individual mines were better than combined mines, I don’t know, but we did. And that’s, what we’ve shifted to say, well, what are your ideas, what do you think is going to happen, this is what we think, let’s, let’s land on something. And I think that’s doing the right thing for the people in Ontario is bringing those best minds together, and getting them to land.
Dr. Monica Gattinger
Yeah. And I think you should all be congratulated for that, by the way, because I have some inkling of how very difficult that that is to do. So, that brings us to the end of our time together. I will not try to summarize such a rich and insightful discussion, except to say that I think, you know, it really makes a couple of things clear. The energy sector’s success is foundational to Ontario is economic success, and the energy sector stands ready to work within the sector, but also, outside of the sector with others in industry and beyond, to make that happen. So, thank you so much for such a wonderful conversation, and I will turn it back to our hosts at the Empire club.
Jenna Donelson
Thank you, Monica, and thank you to our panellists, I’m going to invite you to take a seat, while we close out. What an insightful and substantive conversation. Let’s give our panel one more round of applause. I’d now like to invite our other Lead Sponsor National Bank Capital Markets, to the podium, National Bank Capital Markets remains an important partner of the Empire Club, and plays an essential role in mobilizing capital and supporting the investment decisions that underpin Ontario’s economic strengths. So, please join me in welcoming to the stage, Brendan Costigan, managing director, investment banking, power, utilities and infrastructure, at National Bank Capital Markets.
Note of Appreciation by Brendan Costigan, Managing Director, Investment Banking — Power, Utilities & Infrastructure, National Bank Capital Markets
Thank you, Jenna. So, my name is Brendan, and I spent a lot of time thinking about electricity markets as part of my job at National Bank. National is a very proud supporter of the Empire Club of Canada, and everything it does. Yes, it gives us an opportunity for a bit of a brand boost, and that’s all wonderful. But really, what’s way more important than that is, is these events provide a forum for all of you to get together to share ideas, to network. And really, with the hopes of tackling these, these very major issues and challenges facing Ontario, and facing Canada, more broadly, in areas like energy. Such as the challenge that we just heard discussed today, around Ontario’s electricity demand, and that growing demand. I mean, this is this is a formidable challenge, it’s something that National Bank is very passionate about. We’re also very excited about the growth and innovation, though, that we think this will engender.
We also value that the Empire Club is able to bring together some very influential leaders, both private sector and public sector, to have this kind of discussion. Like, these are the individuals that are largely going to be responsible for this massive informational growth that we’re undertaking, and are really responsible for literally keeping the lights on in Ontario. So, we at National Bank want to thank the Empire Club for hosting today’s event, we want to thank all of you for attending, and we really hope you got a lot of value out of today’s event. Cheers.
Concluding Remarks by Jenna Donelson
Thank you so much for those thoughtful remarks, Brendan. Thank you again to all of our panellists, our sponsors, and of course, to all of you for joining us. I’d like to also just take a moment to recognize the students and young leaders we have in the room today. Their presence is made possible through our charitable arm, the Empire Club Foundation, and the generosity of donors who make sure that they can be in the room for conversations like this. So, I’m glad you’re here students.
A few more housekeeping notes for you, as well. We have a few upcoming events at the Empire Club of Canada, and if you would like to stay connected with those events, please make sure that you subscribe to our newsletter by scanning the QR code on your table. We also have membership program. So, if you would like to participate in the membership program, get even more information and benefits, please see the staff at the registration desk for more information, and a teaser of a few upcoming events that we have.
First, on April 8th, Eric Chassard, President and CEO Of Bruce Power, will address the future of nuclear and innovation, and Ontario’s role in advancing Canada’s clean energy leadership. We will also have, on April 24th, one year into a new mandate, Tim Hodgson, Canada’s Minister of Energy and Natural Resources, coming to reflect on the foundations laid to get Canada building again, and the nation building work that is still ahead.
Those events are on sale now, as always, and as a club of record, all Empire club events are available to watch and listen to on our website, the recording of today’s event will be available shortly. Thank you all for joining us today, I wish you a wonderful afternoon ahead. This meeting is now adjourned.
